Does Technical analysis really work or is it a hoax to fool people ?

I would safely say that Indicators/ Technical analysis work almost as good as fundamental analysis if you know "How to interpret and use it".

I will be speaking only on my behalf in relation to "What works for me and what does not".

If anyone says out loud that they are an expert in the market, you can pretty much assume they are full of crap.

When I had no idea about the market, I was learning from every source & tried every new learning to find out what works.

"Yes" it was a tiring process but at the end of day I was passionate about the market and kept my spirit high despite countless failures.

Gamblers rely more on luck than skill.

I have no shame when I say that I have a diary full of wrong learning's trying to understand the market.

I know a few of both the types i.e. first who have made a lot of money in the market but still I feel that they went over their head, took extraordinary risk to make that money & second who have lost a lot of money but claim that they know everything or better yet justify their failure by giving lame excuses.

I invest & trade in equity segment [ Cash + Future / Options ] & Gold-bees index cash only.

I have defined my universe in the market because I have been learning about these specific instruments for the past 5 years.

Spending another 5 years trying to understand any other instrument like oil, forex does not seem very wise to me.

Moving on to answer the headline of the post.

Just so no one says that the analysis was in the hindsight based on what had already happened, I took the screenshot beforehand.

You can clearly see that on a "1 hour time-frame", this was happening to "Tatamotors" price.

Based on my Nifty view which i also shared on our telegram group in live market, I was looking for a good short setup and I was analyzing "Tatamotor" chart and the option data. I decided to"Sell" it at 330 on Thursday and bought back on Friday at 303 & made decent money.

I also have the trade proof for critics but that is not this Post's topic.

As you may see that it actually traded at 303.

So "What works” ?

🟢 Index analysis before taking a trade [ Chart + Other data ].

🟢 Stock analysis before taking a trade [ Chart + Other data ].

🟢 Understanding "Price action" of index and stock.

🟢 Indicators work if you know how to interpret them but don't use more than 3 at any cost.

🟢 Choose which indicators work best along with your setup.

🟢 Parameter settings of those indicators should be in conjunction with the time-frame and more importantly with each other.

🟢 Know the indicators you are using well enough. It is not necessary that they are supposed to work even if you are using them like an "Amateur". Get into the depth and it might not be shown in any YouTube video you have ever watched, what you have read in books or learnt from any course. The real world is a bit different from "Theory".

🟢 Always use adequate "Risk management" & "Position sizing".

Points to remember :

🟢 What worked for someone else might not work for you.

🟢 Keep learning till you succeed.

🟢 One who doesn't do anything never fails.

🟢 No shortcuts.

🟢 Never borrow money.

🟢 Never leverage.

🟢 Never expose yourself to more risk than you can afford.

🟢 Stock market is like a test match, don't try to hit a six on each ball.

🟢 I use both Fundamental & Technical analysis.

🟢 Market is like a war because at the end it is "Zero-Sum". "Knowledge" is your weapon & if you go to war without any weapon there is no doubt you will die. It is “Ok” to lose a few battles but try not to lose the war [Don't go broke].

🟢 Don't test the depth of the water with both feet if you don't know how to swim - Warren Buffet

I am not an "Expert", "Stop-loss" does get hit few times.

It may sound like a lot to do before taking a trade but your hard earned money will be at risk here, why should it be easy to make money in the market ?

Some people might have a simpler system of taking good trades and I would love to learn about it if it gives similar accuracy and success rate with same risk management.

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Regards !!